Weak September Seasonals Precede Strong Midterm Trends George Smith | Portfolio StrategistSeptember 01, 2026 Stocks have enjoyed a powerful run off the spring lows and have largely shrugged off concerns around growth, inflation, higher interest rates, the effects of artificial intelligence (AI), geopolitics, and policy uncertainty. As the calendar turns to September, however, they are entering what has historically been, from a seasonality perspective, the most challenging month of the year for equities. So why does seasonality exist at all? A handful of recurring, calendar-driven behaviors tend to leave a footprint on returns: tax-related selling, mutual fund fiscal year-ends, corporate buyback windows, summer liquidity lulls, and the predictable rhythm of earnings season all nudge markets in loosely repeatable ways. That is why these patterns are worth watching; when a behavioral tendency persists across decades, it can offer a useful sense of the prevailing wind. From a seasonality perspective, September has consistently stood out. Since 1950, it is the only month with a negative average return, at roughly -0.6%, and the S&P 500 has finished the month higher less than half the time. That weakness has been even more pronounced over the past five and 10 years, so the seasonal caution flag is a fair one to raise. Performance prior to 1957 is measured by the predecessor index, the S&P 90. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Seasonality Trends Weaker for Equities in September
Thomas Shipp | Head of Equity ResearchJune 02, 2026 Additional content provided by Tucker Beale, Sr. Analyst, Research. Interest in the IPO space has skyrocketed in the lead up to the public listing of SpaceX. And for good reason. SpaceX is looking to raise as much as $75 billion in what is expected to be the largest IPO ever, with a projected valuation range of $1.75 trillion to north of $2 trillion. Today we will cover what the company does, what it intends to do, and our key takeaways from the watershed S-1 filing. SpaceX’s mission is to “build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” Those lofty ambitions currently manifest as three businesses: Reusable rockets for space travel, Starlink for connectivity, and xAI’s Grok “truth seeking” frontier AI model (with access to the social media platform X for training data). Along with serving their existing markets, these three business lines have the combined goal of starting to deploy orbital AI compute satellites working as data centers in space as early as 2028. By lowering the cost of transportation to orbit and leveraging expertise gained by managing the existing constellation of Starlink satellites, SpaceX looks to sidestep existing power bottlenecks restraining the AI race with a solar powered network of satellites. SpaceX management believes AI leadership will be defined by vertical integration of infrastructure and application. In other words, the ability to rapidly scale capacity to support exponential usage growth and frontier intelligence, supported by the belief that more computational resources lead to higher-quality intelligence. Management’s focus on this goal is outlined in their total addressable market (TAM) projections, which skew heavily towards AI enterprise applications powered by AI satellites and mirrors the estimated total market for knowledge work. SpaceX’s Estimated TAM by Segment
AI and the Parabolic Tech Surge By Peter Mullin Written June 10, 2026 When the Iran War began, most investors expected a quick resolution. Now, 100 days later, the conflict drags on, yet the stock market—especially tech—staged a historic rally in May. Sometimes, when things seem dire, the market surprises us. But history tells us these tech surges are rare—only about five times in 30 years have we seen such gains—and the math behind May’s rally was shaky. Goldman Sachs pointed out that May’s market moves have only been matched three times in recent decades—during the Tech Bubble. When the numbers get erratic and investors turn greedy, that’s often a signal to be cautious. It’s amusing to watch tech companies add addictive, affirming features to AI models—history repeating itself in a new form. Like asking, “Mirror (AI), on the wall, who’s the fairest of them all?”—and getting exactly the answer you want. We can use Grok, ChatGPT, or Google, but we should still verify. For most people, “AI” is just the latest word for a search engine. There’s a temptation to trust what comes back—especially from new tools—but we must question and verify the results. AI User: Is it ever possible for 1+1 to equal 4? Reader : What do you think? I asked AI and made the math so.
Market Update: Navigating Uncertain Times — A Note for Clients As we pass the 60-day mark since the onset of the war with Iran, I want to reach out to each of you— entrepreneurs, retirees, and young professionals alike—to provide both perspective and reassurance during these volatile times. Whether you’re enjoying your retirement years or balancing careers and family, the ongoing headlines and market swings can feel overwhelming. Let’s take a measured look at where we stand. I tend to write when the headlines are either overwhelmingly positive or deeply concerning. My goal isn’t to contribute to the noise of good news or bad news, but rather to offer perspective when it matters most. Of course, you’re always welcome to connect with me whenever life takes a turn—those personal milestones and changes are truly the moments where thoughtful planning can make all the difference. Since my last update, when the conflict had just begun, many aspects of the market have shifted—though not all in the same direction. Semiconductor stocks have become the latest sector to experience hyperbolic growth, echoing the surge we saw in silver earlier this year. I coined the term “locker room indicator” when I overheard so many talking about silver at the gym. It turns out this indicator was fair. While it can feel thrilling to shoot a long elevator chute, the fall can be panic-inducing if the brakes fail. Or so I imagine. *Portfolio Insights: When high-octane insights work in our favor we trim or remove those positions. Usually, high-octane concepts come in small doses as far as portfolios are constructed. Even if they have been held short-term. I find it prudent to try and avoid a potentially big loss, rather than hang in there for just 10% more. Meanwhile, oil prices remain elevated, hovering around $90-100 per barrel. This continues to directly impact consumers, with gas prices climbing above $4.25 per gallon (Minnesota) —a strain acutely felt at the pump. Today’s inflation data came in hot, at 3.8%, a reading that runs contrary to the Federal Reserve’s goals (Bureau of Labor Statistics). For both retirees on fixed incomes and young families managing monthly expenses, this uptick in inflation underscores the importance of maintaining a diversified investment approach and prudent budgeting. The volatility we’ve seen over the past 18 months remains atypical by historical standards. Yet, if you’ve been tracking the market closely – and I have – there is a silver lining: the market, despite its ups and downs, is above trend for positive days.
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Weak September Seasonals Precede Strong Midterm Trends George Smith | Portfolio StrategistSeptember 01, 2026 Stocks have enjoyed a powerful run off the spring lows and have largely shrugged off concerns around growth, inflation, higher interest rates, the effects of artificial intelligence (AI), geopolitics, and policy uncertainty. As the calendar turns to September, however, they are entering what has historically been, from a seasonality perspective, the most challenging month of the year for equities. So why does seasonality exist at all? A handful of recurring, calendar-driven behaviors tend to leave a footprint on returns: tax-related selling, mutual fund fiscal year-ends, corporate buyback windows, summer liquidity lulls, and the predictable rhythm of earnings season all nudge markets in loosely repeatable ways. That is why these patterns are worth watching; when a behavioral tendency persists across decades, it can offer a useful sense of the prevailing wind. From a seasonality perspective, September has consistently stood out. Since 1950, it is the only month with a negative average return, at roughly -0.6%, and the S&P 500 has finished the month higher less than half the time. That weakness has been even more pronounced over the past five and 10 years, so the seasonal caution flag is a fair one to raise. Performance prior to 1957 is measured by the predecessor index, the S&P 90. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Seasonality Trends Weaker for Equities in September
Thomas Shipp | Head of Equity ResearchJune 02, 2026 Additional content provided by Tucker Beale, Sr. Analyst, Research. Interest in the IPO space has skyrocketed in the lead up to the public listing of SpaceX. And for good reason. SpaceX is looking to raise as much as $75 billion in what is expected to be the largest IPO ever, with a projected valuation range of $1.75 trillion to north of $2 trillion. Today we will cover what the company does, what it intends to do, and our key takeaways from the watershed S-1 filing. SpaceX’s mission is to “build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” Those lofty ambitions currently manifest as three businesses: Reusable rockets for space travel, Starlink for connectivity, and xAI’s Grok “truth seeking” frontier AI model (with access to the social media platform X for training data). Along with serving their existing markets, these three business lines have the combined goal of starting to deploy orbital AI compute satellites working as data centers in space as early as 2028. By lowering the cost of transportation to orbit and leveraging expertise gained by managing the existing constellation of Starlink satellites, SpaceX looks to sidestep existing power bottlenecks restraining the AI race with a solar powered network of satellites. SpaceX management believes AI leadership will be defined by vertical integration of infrastructure and application. In other words, the ability to rapidly scale capacity to support exponential usage growth and frontier intelligence, supported by the belief that more computational resources lead to higher-quality intelligence. Management’s focus on this goal is outlined in their total addressable market (TAM) projections, which skew heavily towards AI enterprise applications powered by AI satellites and mirrors the estimated total market for knowledge work. SpaceX’s Estimated TAM by Segment
AI and the Parabolic Tech Surge By Peter Mullin Written June 10, 2026 When the Iran War began, most investors expected a quick resolution. Now, 100 days later, the conflict drags on, yet the stock market—especially tech—staged a historic rally in May. Sometimes, when things seem dire, the market surprises us. But history tells us these tech surges are rare—only about five times in 30 years have we seen such gains—and the math behind May’s rally was shaky. Goldman Sachs pointed out that May’s market moves have only been matched three times in recent decades—during the Tech Bubble. When the numbers get erratic and investors turn greedy, that’s often a signal to be cautious. It’s amusing to watch tech companies add addictive, affirming features to AI models—history repeating itself in a new form. Like asking, “Mirror (AI), on the wall, who’s the fairest of them all?”—and getting exactly the answer you want. We can use Grok, ChatGPT, or Google, but we should still verify. For most people, “AI” is just the latest word for a search engine. There’s a temptation to trust what comes back—especially from new tools—but we must question and verify the results. AI User: Is it ever possible for 1+1 to equal 4? Reader : What do you think? I asked AI and made the math so.
Market Update: Navigating Uncertain Times — A Note for Clients As we pass the 60-day mark since the onset of the war with Iran, I want to reach out to each of you— entrepreneurs, retirees, and young professionals alike—to provide both perspective and reassurance during these volatile times. Whether you’re enjoying your retirement years or balancing careers and family, the ongoing headlines and market swings can feel overwhelming. Let’s take a measured look at where we stand. I tend to write when the headlines are either overwhelmingly positive or deeply concerning. My goal isn’t to contribute to the noise of good news or bad news, but rather to offer perspective when it matters most. Of course, you’re always welcome to connect with me whenever life takes a turn—those personal milestones and changes are truly the moments where thoughtful planning can make all the difference. Since my last update, when the conflict had just begun, many aspects of the market have shifted—though not all in the same direction. Semiconductor stocks have become the latest sector to experience hyperbolic growth, echoing the surge we saw in silver earlier this year. I coined the term “locker room indicator” when I overheard so many talking about silver at the gym. It turns out this indicator was fair. While it can feel thrilling to shoot a long elevator chute, the fall can be panic-inducing if the brakes fail. Or so I imagine. *Portfolio Insights: When high-octane insights work in our favor we trim or remove those positions. Usually, high-octane concepts come in small doses as far as portfolios are constructed. Even if they have been held short-term. I find it prudent to try and avoid a potentially big loss, rather than hang in there for just 10% more. Meanwhile, oil prices remain elevated, hovering around $90-100 per barrel. This continues to directly impact consumers, with gas prices climbing above $4.25 per gallon (Minnesota) —a strain acutely felt at the pump. Today’s inflation data came in hot, at 3.8%, a reading that runs contrary to the Federal Reserve’s goals (Bureau of Labor Statistics). For both retirees on fixed incomes and young families managing monthly expenses, this uptick in inflation underscores the importance of maintaining a diversified investment approach and prudent budgeting. The volatility we’ve seen over the past 18 months remains atypical by historical standards. Yet, if you’ve been tracking the market closely – and I have – there is a silver lining: the market, despite its ups and downs, is above trend for positive days.