The lesson of how the economist nearly drowned ...       in a 4-foot quarry 

Peter Mullin • June 12, 2019

Once upon a time, an economist was hiking with his friend. They came upon a lake with a sign that read, “Warning: Swim at your own risk.” Next to the sign was a sign explaining the history of the woods and the lake. The sign clearly stated that the average elevation around the lake was 4-feet.

The economist stated that he was hot and would very much like to cool off. So the economist took his shoes and socks off and waded into the water. He took a few steps in and suddenly the 6-foot tall economist was in water over his head! He looked down and saw black water beneath him. He started to panic.

Now a drowning man does not typically thrash about. In fact, they can sink under the water without anyone taking much notice. His friend was along the shore and called for help. Suddenly, a Good Samaritan threw a life ring out. The economist resurfaced and was able to grab hold.

After the Good Samaritan pulled him to shore the economist thanked him. The Samaritan spoke, “Son, what mind do you have going out there when you know you can’t swim?”

The economist said, “That sign lies! It said this lakes average elevation was 4-feet in depth!”

“Sir. I owned much of this land before I donated it to the park not 20-years ago,” the good samaritan started.

“Then maybe you should tell them to fix this sign,” the economist interrupted, again.

The Good Samaritan finished explaining, “The sign is correct. The average elevation is 4-feet. But this is a big quarry.” He pointed to the rocky landscape surrounding them. “Up there is 100 feet above us. And down there,” he pointed to where the economist began to drown, “you go 100-feet below. If you stay near the edge you are right. But if you go to the middle you are very, very wrong.” Tell me,” said the Good Samaritan, “what is it you do for a living?”

“I am an economist!” he replied.

“Oh, so I don’t need to waste your time telling you all this. You’re used to being wrong!” The Good Samaritan smiled and walked away.

The Lesson

I heard Warren Buffett explain at his 50th Shareholders meeting in the CenturyLink arena (Omaha) that, “We think a company with an economist on staff certainly has one employee too many."

Many economists are good at reading numbers. But few get the economy right. Even more economists state predictions with no margin for error.

Predicting the economy is a lot like predicting the weather. Except with the weather there is some margin for error.

When was the last time you heard a loud opinion or headline state: “RECESSION LOOMING. ( 30-70% Chance )”?

Nope. The first part sells headline news. Balanced opinions do not get as much air time.

Since 2010, I have heard that the next recession is looming. I have heard that our national debt will ruin us. That social security is going to go bankrupt. That interest rates are going to rise. No matter the calendar year. These topics cycle through. Eventually these predictions may play out. But likely not as most economists think.

At least when the weather report states that we can expect rain, we can clarify that rain is 70% likely. Then I’ll pack my umbrella.

The Punchline

I want to help you stare fear of financial loss in the face. I think you can do this by becoming an informed investor. Remember, there is no such thing as the perfect portfolio. I let client conversations and needs lead the way.

I started as a financial advisor in 2008. Just as the Dow Jones started a now infamous losing streak, and Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy. And it got better. It historically does. But talk about being thrown into the deep end!

Even when things may feel scary we can still rely on a principle-driven process.

My investment process evaluates your circumstances and risk sentiment; it calls upon trusted resources and Nobel Prize-winning ideas like diversification (Awarded in 1990 to Harry Markowitz) and keeps you & your idea of a comfortable life at the center.

ARE YOU A CLIENT CANDIDATE?

**Are you a client candidate? Individuals who want to take advantage of savvy tax planning solutions while looking to live comfortably should have $250,000 to invest, otherwise, I do have a great monthly rate for clients who are aspiring to accumulate $250,000 and more!**

Until next time, carry on!

Credit/Muse/Thanks: Nate Silvers, Signal and the Noise (book)

Peter Mullin is an independent financial advisor registered through LPL Financial. He lives in Rogers, MN with his family. He was born and raised in St. Cloud, MN. Mullin Wealth Management is headquartered in Saint Cloud, MN.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

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Counting down to the Space X Launch

By Peter Mullin • June 12, 2026
​ Thomas Shipp | Head of Equity ResearchJune 02, 2026 Additional content provided by Tucker Beale, Sr. Analyst, Research. Interest in the IPO space has skyrocketed in the lead up to the public listing of SpaceX. And for good reason. SpaceX is looking to raise as much as $75 billion in what is expected to be the largest IPO ever, with a projected valuation range of $1.75 trillion to north of $2 trillion. Today we will cover what the company does, what it intends to do, and our key takeaways from the watershed S-1 filing. SpaceX’s mission is to “build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” Those lofty ambitions currently manifest as three businesses: Reusable rockets for space travel, Starlink for connectivity, and xAI’s Grok “truth seeking” frontier AI model (with access to the social media platform X for training data). Along with serving their existing markets, these three business lines have the combined goal of starting to deploy orbital AI compute satellites working as data centers in space as early as 2028. By lowering the cost of transportation to orbit and leveraging expertise gained by managing the existing constellation of Starlink satellites, SpaceX looks to sidestep existing power bottlenecks restraining the AI race with a solar powered network of satellites. SpaceX management believes AI leadership will be defined by vertical integration of infrastructure and application. In other words, the ability to rapidly scale capacity to support exponential usage growth and frontier intelligence, supported by the belief that more computational resources lead to higher-quality intelligence. Management’s focus on this goal is outlined in their total addressable market (TAM) projections, which skew heavily towards AI enterprise applications powered by AI satellites and mirrors the estimated total market for knowledge work.  SpaceX’s Estimated TAM by Segment

Wealth Watch: AI and the Tech Surge

By Peter Mullin • June 12, 2026
AI and the Parabolic Tech Surge By Peter Mullin Written June 10, 2026 When the Iran War began, most investors expected a quick resolution. Now, 100 days later, the conflict drags on, yet the stock market—especially tech—staged a historic rally in May. Sometimes, when things seem dire, the market surprises us. But history tells us these tech surges are rare—only about five times in 30 years have we seen such gains—and the math behind May’s rally was shaky. Goldman Sachs pointed out that May’s market moves have only been matched three times in recent decades—during the Tech Bubble. When the numbers get erratic and investors turn greedy, that’s often a signal to be cautious. It’s amusing to watch tech companies add addictive, affirming features to AI models—history repeating itself in a new form. Like asking, “Mirror (AI), on the wall, who’s the fairest of them all?”—and getting exactly the answer you want. We can use Grok, ChatGPT, or Google, but we should still verify. For most people, “AI” is just the latest word for a search engine. There’s a temptation to trust what comes back—especially from new tools—but we must question and verify the results. AI User: Is it ever possible for 1+1 to equal 4? Reader : What do you think? I asked AI and made the math so. 

Market Update: Navigating Uncertain Times — A Note for Clients

By Peter Mullin • May 14, 2026
Market Update: Navigating Uncertain Times — A Note for Clients As we pass the 60-day mark since the onset of the war with Iran, I want to reach out to each of you— entrepreneurs, retirees, and young professionals alike—to provide both perspective and reassurance during these volatile times. Whether you’re enjoying your retirement years or balancing careers and family, the ongoing headlines and market swings can feel overwhelming. Let’s take a measured look at where we stand. I tend to write when the headlines are either overwhelmingly positive or deeply concerning. My goal isn’t to contribute to the noise of good news or bad news, but rather to offer perspective when it matters most. Of course, you’re always welcome to connect with me whenever life takes a turn—those personal milestones and changes are truly the moments where thoughtful planning can make all the difference. Since my last update, when the conflict had just begun, many aspects of the market have shifted—though not all in the same direction. Semiconductor stocks have become the latest sector to experience hyperbolic growth, echoing the surge we saw in silver earlier this year. I coined the term “locker room indicator” when I overheard so many talking about silver at the gym. It turns out this indicator was fair. While it can feel thrilling to shoot a long elevator chute, the fall can be panic-inducing if the brakes fail. Or so I imagine. *Portfolio Insights: When high-octane insights work in our favor we trim or remove those positions. Usually, high-octane concepts come in small doses as far as portfolios are constructed. Even if they have been held short-term. I find it prudent to try and avoid a potentially big loss, rather than hang in there for just 10% more. Meanwhile, oil prices remain elevated, hovering around $90-100 per barrel. This continues to directly impact consumers, with gas prices climbing above $4.25 per gallon (Minnesota) —a strain acutely felt at the pump. Today’s inflation data came in hot, at 3.8%, a reading that runs contrary to the Federal Reserve’s goals (Bureau of Labor Statistics). For both retirees on fixed incomes and young families managing monthly expenses, this uptick in inflation underscores the importance of maintaining a diversified investment approach and prudent budgeting. The volatility we’ve seen over the past 18 months remains atypical by historical standards. Yet, if you’ve been tracking the market closely – and I have – there is a silver lining: the market, despite its ups and downs, is above trend for positive days.

Iran Watch: My best advice in a manic market

By Peter Mullin • March 4, 2026
My best advice a manic market By Peter Mullin, CEO/Financial Consultant Clients, we have never been in it for last year's results. Instead, we are betting on future prospects. We know life is not perfect. But over time, it will be okay. There are life lessons we can draw on from investing. One lesson involves taking bad periods with a grain of salt. Uncertainty is the price we pay for an investment’s potential rewards. Iran is striking back at the Middle East and allies like a multi-headed medusa. This did just occur in June of 2025. The difference is there is a presumed push for a regime change. It is a nail biting time, once again. My best advice is to keep the long view in mind during times that test our wits. But there is war. There is hyperinflation. This market is out of control. I can't lose anymore…I won’t live long enough to recover. How long has it taken a market to bounce back? Surprisingly, markets bounce back quite quickly from the real terror of missiles, mortars and military strikes. JP Morgan’s chart shows that it takes 2-3 weeks (or less) on average. The average drawdown is about -5.3%.

Assessing Market Impacts of Iran Airstrikes

March 3, 2026
This week on LPL Market Signals, Chief Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder and Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum, discuss potential stock and bond market impacts of the airstrikes on Iran over the weekend. Tracking: #1072379

Assessing the Impact of Developments in Iran: Watch Energy

March 3, 2026
Kristian Kerr | Head of Macro Strategy Last Updated: March 02, 2026 Over the weekend, the United States and Israel conducted a coordinated series of missile and drone strikes against Iran, targeting several high-value military installations in an effort to hinder Iran’s nuclear development efforts. These operations resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, marking a significant escalation and immediately heightening regional tensions. Iran quickly retaliated by launching a broad series of missile attacks directed not only at Israel but also at multiple Gulf states, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. The repercussions were felt across the region. Several Gulf countries responded by shutting down their airspace and closing their equity markets. The conflict also affected global energy flows. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply, came to a near standstill as shipping companies diverted vessels away from the area for safety reasons. Plus, Qatar shuttered liquefied natural gas production at the world’s largest export facility after being targeted by an Iranian drone strike. President Donald Trump stated that U.S. strikes on Iran would continue, signaling that tensions are likely to remain elevated for the next few weeks. From a market perspective, the energy market is the primary way through which this crisis is likely to impact global markets. Any sustained disruption to oil or natural gas flows, especially if both severe and long lasting, have the potential to influence inflation expectations, weigh on business confidence, and elevate volatility across asset classes. In simple terms, the more intense and prolonged the geopolitical shock, the larger the likely market impact. This pattern was already evident when markets opened on Monday. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, briefly touched $82 per barrel as traders responded to the possibility of tighter supply conditions. A sustained period of elevated prices would place upward pressure on inflation expectations, and that in turn could have broader consequences for both equity and interest rate markets. However, for such a persistent rise in crude prices to materialize, markets would likely need evidence of a more prolonged or even total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. A disruption of that scale would represent a meaningful escalation relative to what has occurred so far and would justify a more substantial risk premium in energy markets. There is also a political dimension tied to Iran’s internal stability, particularly regarding how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) chooses to respond. Whether it opts to pull back or escalate further will play a major role in determining how much of the current shock reflects elevated risk premiums versus a true disruption to physical supply.  Oil Prices Spike as Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic Stalls

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Well it’s the end of the year. I just searched on Google for “market outlook 2018.” I came up with a little over 58-million “results.”

So should you be investing in stocks in 2018? The quick answer: It’s likely a prudent part of your portfolio. But it depends on your circumstances, right?

It’s apparently popular to throw your hat in the ring.

A mantra that you hear among disciplined professionals is to “stay the course.”

Then you hear “sell high, buy low.”

Who’s right?

The relief of a disciplined strategy is that it can be tailored to you. And tailor we think you should.

Yes, it’s possible that an investor may not utilize stocks in their portfolio at all. Or you may decide to go “all in” with a diversified stock portfolio.

(Side effects from tailoring a strategy may include increased confidence & persistence, apathy toward daily market reports, and increased focus on what really matters.)

Let’s begin with the “Why” of investing for you. Then you can request 15-minutes on the phone discuss your “how.”

So “Why Should You Invest”

Life changes and our “why” of investing ought to transform with life. Some invest for sport  – they like the risk/reward of investing – they’re in it for the thrill. I don’t hang with this crowd.

Most of us ought to invest for things we want. Our money & our goals are serious. By investing in a diversified portfolio we can pursue things we want.

1. Living A Comfortable Retirement: Retirement is a noun. It’s up to you to really design and live a retirement that reflects you.

2. Purchasing a Home: Home is a place to live. It can take a down payment.

3. Passing an Inheritance on to Family:

4. Student Loan Shield: This idea is important for many Millennial graduates. Student loans can dominate your budget. But instead of accelerating those payments, what if you paid your required payments, and then invested the additional money that you were going to pay against your loan balance?

5. Emergency Reserves: You probably have read that it’s prudent to keep a relative healthy amount of cash in your checking/savings. Once you’ve achieved that, then you can consider investing additional funds. Go a step further and consider a non-retirement account for you and your house. You can spend this on cars, vacations or use it just as described in #4.

The Dow Jones has seen positive results, so far, in 2017. It’s unusual and sort of uncomfortable as the independent financial advisor. Why is it uncomfortable?

What would sting & linger longer? Finding $20 in the parking lot? Or finding a $20 parking fine on your windshield?

We’ve been finding a lot of metaphorical “$20’s” (i.e. “positive results”) in our portfolios this year. So the second we find a parking fine (or a few in a row) we’ll be sure to ask if stocks are still the right place to park our money.

Complacency can work against us, Dear Clients. Just keep recalling your long-haul strategy and your “why” of investing.

***

Peter Mullin is an independent financial advisor registered through LPL Financial. He lives in Rogers, MN with his family. He was born and raised in St. Cloud, MN. Mullin Wealth Management is located in Waite Park, MN.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

 

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