Fear is Good By Peter Mullin Investments climb a wall of worry. From November through the start of December 2024, fear was nowhere to be found. There were signs of euphoria. Folks wondered why they hadn't dug deeper into the darlings of 2024. Here is one reason why we don't (and probably shouldn't): What goes up 15% can go down 15%. What goes up 40% can go down 40%. Then the new year came around. And this last week, China said it beat the US in AI engineering – at just 3% of the cost (VentureBeat, 2025). I joined a conference call on Wednesday to chat about this DeepSeek AI. I raised skepticism. I called back to how China has a habit of grandiose stories. Read this story about the Chinese real estate bust: China's Economy Is Burdened by Years of Excess. Here's How Bad It Really Is . (WSJ, January 1, 2025). Something that is different is the fact that this DeepSeek is open source. That means that anyone should be able to look at it and see how it operates. Is it as good as they claim? We will see. However, we can also anticipate further disruptive announcements in the years ahead. AI will expand. I remember an investment outfit telling a tale of how they were impressed by the Chinese real estate market over 12 years ago. It was incredible, they said. They were building droves of huge apartment complexes. And people could only move in once the entire development was rented. They said the demand was huge as folks joined a lottery to come from rural farmlands to the urban areas. At least, that is what they said. AI For Us Common Folks Two words that we common folk think we do not know a lot about might be "AI" and "semiconductors." Admittedly, I am not writing programs for these large companies. But I know what the vision and goals of them are. I have used them quite a bit. I want to be able to keep up with them so I don't have to rely on my 9-year-old to teach me. AI is the ability to train a computer or machine to think and compute like the human brain, except with massive efficiency. It might take you hours to research and book your vacation online today. Someday soon you may be able to book your whole vacation by telling a program a few key data points. You will get it for the optimal price and according to your preferences. AI may also add a few surprises that you find you enjoy while on vacation. I could run this letter through AI and ask it to sound different. (But I won't. I enjoy writing. And our voice comes through in our writing.) But AI is most certainly combing through my published words online and learning from them. Semiconductors are the power lines and transformers for data. They keep the computers clicking – fast and cool. Computers can run hot. And the more data you drive from the computer the hotter it can get. Imagine rubbing two sticks together to start a fire by hand. That was the 1980's for computers. Now attach one of those sticks to a drill and add a butane torch. Investment Implications I have heard the innovation song before. Read my take on the word on my blog here . Here is what happened this past week. I view this from the psychological side of money management. The self-off in technology may have been overdone. But it was also overdue. If stocks climb a wall of worry, then we need a wall in front of us to climb. That wall of worry seemed to be worn down to rubble on the back of two incredibly strong years of growth. After getting a health gut-check, we can dig our heels in, retest our convictions, and carry on. So, if investors were lucky enough to sidestep some of the quick, violent pullbacks on the AI investment space, they might want to revisit. And consider adding to the space at reduced prices. Because I don't think the AI story is done. Three things I think about when it comes to US Tech Leadership: #1. First, realize that tech stocks are not the only place to invest our hard-earned money. But also recognize that tech companies are the heavyweights in the US equity markets. #2: Moore's Law: Every two years, the capacity for a semiconductor DOUBLES. What are semiconductors, you ask? They make our phones, TVs, and computers – and all connected things work. #3. Jevons Paradox: Our first thought is that making something more efficient will decrease prices and demand. But the reverse is true. More folks are using computers today than they were in the 1980's. And they cost a whole lot less. The CEO of Microsoft just tweeted about Jevons Paradox in response to the Chinese AI story that appears to have caused a bump in AI-centric stocks. ______________________ Peter Mullin is an independent financial advisor registered through LPL Financial. He serves clients from his offices in Minnesota and states across the country. Investing involves risks including the possible loss of capital. 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